As the planet grapples with escalating climate challenges, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has emerged as a potential linchpin in the effort to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. CCS technology aims to intercept carbon dioxide emitted from industrial processes and power generation, subsequently sequestering it deep underground. This technique can facilitate not only stabilization of current emissions but also pave the way for negative emissions—technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air capture and storage (DACCS) promise not only to arrest emissions but also to “reverse” the carbon footprint of fossil fuel combustion. Yet, despite the promise of CCS, recent studies reveal a daunting reality: an immediate and substantial expansion is imperative to meet the Paris Climate Agreement goals.
A pioneering study conducted by researchers from Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden and the University of Bergen in Norway underscores the challenges facing CCS deployment. Published in *Nature Climate Change*, the study projects that CCS may sequester at most 600 gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide by the end of the century—far from the 1,000 Gt level deemed necessary in various climate scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This stark revelation raises concerns about the feasibility of government aims and the urgency of deploying CCS on a broader scale.
Tsimafei Kazlou, the lead author of the study, emphasizes that timing is critical. The longer the global community waits to adopt CCS at scale, the slimmer the prospect of maintaining global temperature rises within the desired limits of 1.5°C or even 2°C. Given that the planet has already experienced significant temperature increases, the need for a rapid and robust CCS rollout cannot be overstated. If we do not begin utilizing CCS soon, the chances of meeting essential climate targets diminish drastically.
The study advocates for an immediate increase in CCS projects to foster an environment where this technology can flourish. Notably, existing legislative frameworks such as the European Union’s Net-Zero Industry Act and the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act offer a foundation upon which to build substantial CCS capacity. Should current plans materialize, the CCS capacity could increase eightfold by 2030. However, the implementation of ambitious plans must be approached with caution, as the historical context of CCS reveals a troubling trend: nearly 90% of planned projects failed approximately 15 years ago during a previous surge of interest in the technology.
Kazlou warns that should similar failure rates persist, even doubling existing capacity by 2030 may become an unattainable goal, thus jeopardizing climate targets. Effective policy and investment are pivotal in reducing the likelihood of project failures while enhancing confidence among investors and stakeholders in CCS viability.
The trajectory of CCS, like many emerging technologies, exhibits a non-linear growth pattern. For CCS to fulfill its potential and align with climate targets, it must mirror the rapid growth of other low-carbon technologies. For instance, in the early 2000s, wind power experienced a remarkable acceleration in development that CCS must replicate in the coming decade.
Looking beyond the short term, the authors of the study illuminate the need for CCS to match the rapid expansion pace that nuclear energy demonstrated in the 1970s and 1980s. Jessica Jewell, an Associate Professor at Chalmers University, points out that while it may be feasible for CCS to reach the ambitious 2°C target if it aligns with the growth patterns of past technologies, the 1.5°C target remains elusive.
The implications of this study extend beyond CCS alone; it highlights an urgent need for simultaneous, robust expansion of additional low-carbon technologies. While CCS might be capable of capturing and sequestering 600 Gt of CO2 by the century’s end, the collective effort requires diversification. Solar and wind energy technologies must also see expedited growth to effectively curb carbon emissions and provide complementary support to CCS initiatives.
As Aleh Cherp, a Professor at Central European University, summarizes, the interplay between supportive policies and the rapid deployment of CCS alongside other decarbonization strategies is essential. CCS holds promise as a crucial element in reaching climate goals, yet it is only part of a holistic approach necessary to avert catastrophic climate change. In this race against time, bold actions—both in technology deployment and policy support—are imperative for our global climate future.
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